In most FANtasy Football leagues, there are just two weeks left in OUR regular season. You are in one of three places. Clinched a spot in the playoffs, have a chance to still make the playoffs or out of the playoffs. What to do?

If you are out of the playoffs it’s real easy to say the heck with it and stop playing. Why go through all that work setting up a team and saying “I’m probably going to lose again.” Would yo do that if you still had a shot or were in the playoffs? Of course not. So why start now? You’ve played 12 weeks so far, don’t quit now. Go back 12 weeks when you just started the season and remember the excitement you had of getting your new team. Bring back that excitement for 2 more games. Not to mention, how fair is it to the rest of the league? Why let someone back into the playoffs with an automatic win because you didn’t play? If nothing else, play the spoiler role and knock someone out the right way, with a win.

Suppose your in the second group of still trying to make the playoffs. You really have to buckle down these last two games. Some NFL players will attempt to have really big games to “pad” their stats. It helps them in negotiating new contracts. Some NFL teams will sit key players to “heal” them and get ythem ready for the playoffs. Research ALL of your players to make sure that the players YOU have listed as starters are starting. Take some extra time here. These last two games are critically important to you.

Finally for those of you that are fortunate to have already clinched a playoff spot. Unlike the real NFL you can’t rest your team.Research to make sure your players are starting and do whatever you have to do to win the last last two games. A 12-2 or 10-4 record is something to be proud of. So finish strong, put some fear in your playoff opponent that they are playing one of the stronger teams in your league.

We still have a few more FANtasy Football reports to go. But, I want to say thank you now to all of our loyal readers and to those that were kind to send in comments or ask for help and information. We will be continuing this report in one form or another in the off-season, so if you have any suggestions on where we can take this, feel free to send it in. Until then we can always consider FANtasy Badmitton.

Here is another look at my five FANtasy teams. Went 4-1 this past week end. Clinched three playoff spots so far. Live updates at 11.

http://fantasy.nfl.com/league/349053/team/1 9-3 Clinched Playoff spot

http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=359076 6-5

http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/league?leagueId=47203&teamId=497789 8-2 Clinched Playoff spot

http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=206092 2-10

(Ouch) This is my so called experimental team and the experiment has still gone terribly wrong.

http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/team?leagueId=116416&teamId=838261 3-4 (everyone in playoffs here. I’m in a consolation game that could still take me to the Finals.

GOOD LUCK & HAVE A FANTSTIC WEEK 13

MIKE ON MONDAY

Also check my day time gig at:

www.witenterprises.biz

 
Now, back to the band-aides. Every NFL team has either lost players for the year, or had to rest and heal some key players for a few games due to injuries. And some big names to boot. Kenny Britt made it through two games. I was planning on a big year from him. Tim Hightower made it though six. Earnest Graham-lights out. And just when Denver was about to proclaim Knowshow Moreno their feature RB, he decides to take a break, for the rest of the season. Even James Harrison, Pittsburgs’ very violent middle linebacker, who made a living at knocking out other players,  knocked himself out for several games. As I mentioned in a previous report, it’s a war out there.
You might ask, if everyone is hurt, why reseach the injury?  Here’s a couple of reasons.  If a QBs throwing hand has a broken finger-not good, you should think strongly of benching him. Unless you have Big Ben from the Steelers. He has a broken thumb but was lucky to catch a BYE this week. So he’ll have an extra week to heal but trust me, if Pittsburg played this week, so would Ben. If the broken finger is on your QBs’ non throwing hand, start him. If an RB has a groin or foot injury, sit him. He needs those body parts to get you FANtasy points. If his neck hurts a little, give him a pain shot and start him. Same with WRs. If they have foot or leg injuries , well that’s their bread & butter, it’s what they use to get us FANtasy points. Sit them. If they have a slight wrist ouchy, start them. Oh, don’t forget the Demoral. Then on the other side of the coin you have guys like Tony Romo who played a few games with a body cast and LOTS OF DEMORAL.  And this goes without saying, if your kicker has a broken foot and your not sure what to do, you probably should switch to FANtasy Bowling.

Most of the FANtasy leagues will say if a player is either Probable or Questionaable. Or what I like to refer as The Kiss of Death, A GAME TIME DECISION. The NFL states that each team must submit to the opposing team if a player is playing or not 1 1/2 hours before game time. That should give you time to make a switch if need be. However,  most NFL coaches will not disclose the extent of a players’ injury during the week. How dare they do that to us FANtasy players? If one of your players is listed as Questionable and your roster could afford it don’t start him. Another great tip is to go to the teams web site. On the NFL.com league you can click on the players’ info page and it will take you first to the team name and if you click on that it will take you to the teams actual web site where you get up to the minute injury reports. I’ve used that several times when not sure what to do. And when things just don’t or won’t go the way I planned I turn to this site: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJaIDr8MRDI&feature=BFa&list=PL6B9E348D58CFB1A4&index=20

 We also have to consider the attitudes of the average NFL player. Here’s adirect quote from Detroit defensive tackle, Ndamukong Suh, “I like to punish the QB. I like to punish RBs for them trying to make plays on my defense.” Guess no one is trying to intentionally hurt the opposition in this league.

TIP OF THE WEEK: If you need a QB for the last few weeks ADD Tim Tebow. He is still available in a lot of leagues. I guess people still don’t believe he is a starting NFL QB. I have followed Tim for his 5 years as a Gator and now the last two in Denver. What I’ve always liked about Tebow is his attitude. He may not be fancy and/or polished. He may not have the best delivery (passing) techniques. But he DOES have the BEST attitude. And don’t they tell us that attitude is 90% of the game?  The guy FLAT OUT WINS. Two college championships. A Heisman trophy. And now after  five NFL games, he is 4-1 as a starter. He is also going to be good for at least one Rushing TD, unlike some of the greats like Brady and Rivers. Pick him up and enjoy the solid 20-30 FANtasy points he’ll get you each week.

So it’s week 11. In most FANtasy leagues there are only four more games to go. It’s time to either make a run for the playoffs or put your team in the best position to win those last two playoff games. With just a very few exceptions, using a key player that is only 75% healthy could  do more harm than good. Sometimes a second tier player that is 100% is better. Sometimes, not always, but stranger things have happened in this FANtasy year.
Stick to the basics. If you have a winning team, tweak it if neccesary. If not, leave it alone. If you are near a chance for the playoffs, let it all hang out. For that matter even if you are out of the playoffs, have some fun. Be a spoiler.  What have you got to lose if you pick up a Free Agent or two? Drop the lowest guy in points for the year. Of course just when you decide to do that, he racks up 35 points that week.  I tried to tell you at the start of the season that FANtasy Football brings on premature grey hair. Make sure to check each players’ Oppositions’ Ranking. This is one of the most valuable tools you can use. After 10 weeks of averages, go with the numbers. FANtasy Football is a numbers game. That’s all, don’t complicate it. Play with your head, not your heart.  And, if all else fails, make sure you start your own league next year so you get the first draft pick and you can draft Aaron Rodgers. I hear he’s projected to throw 57 more TDs, while he’s vacationing at Disney World during the off season.
For those of you brave souls that enjoys a laugh and are following my five teams, here are the links:
On
http://fantasy.nfl.com/league/349053/team/1       7-3
On
http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=359076       5-5
On
http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/league?leagueId=47203&teamId=497789      6-2
On
http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=206092      1-9   (Ouch) This is my so called experimental team and the experiment has still gone terribly wrong.   
On
http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/team?leagueId=116416&teamId=838261      2-3

HAVE A FANtastic WEEK 11

MIKE ON MONDAY

Stay in touch and feel free to check out my day time gig at:  www.witenterprises.biz

FANTASY FOOTBALL IS A NUMBERS GAME SO, TRUST THE NUMBERS   Vol.14

There are two types of laws that most of us follow. The first are Man-Made Laws. These are laws that were passed by our legislators from speeding too fast in your car to going too slow in your car, from throwing trash on our streets to putting too much trash on the curb on garbage day. And for the REAL bad guys we have laws  set in place to prevent stealing everything from shoplifting to home invasions. Being a family oriented site thats enough on what the bad guys do, I think you get the picture. You may or may not be caught breaking these Man Made Laws. You may or may not be punished for breaking them as well.

The second set of laws are Universal Laws. These are laws that if broken they will eventuall catch up to us. Such as The Law of Sowing and Reaping. What we sow today we reap tomorrow. If we practice our chosen profession now, we will become better at it tomorrow. The Law of telling the Truth is another. What we lie about today will catch up to us tomorrow. Unlike the Man made Laws where we may or may not get caught, this won’t happen with Universal Laws. If you don’t Sow (study & research) you will not reap. Sow weeds, you get tall weeds.

Why bring this up now on a FANtasy football site? Because, the more work we put in researching our teams and players will pay off in wins on Sunday and Monday. By now it may make some sense that if your ‘big guns’ aren’t getting it done that it might be time to sit them. Case in point. All week long I debated whether to play Julio Jones, WR from Atlanta over James Jones WR from Green Bay. Jones from GB has had a few very good games, but after looking at Atlantas’ opponent (Indy) my GUT said to go with Julio who responded with 27 FANtasy point vs James’ 8. Another tip worth sharing is when you have a player who is on the bubble as far as playing or not due to an injury, then go to his NFL teams website for any injury news from the team. The more you Sow the More you Reap.

It wasn’t what we’re use to from the last few years but it looks loke Chris Johnson may be finally coming around. He got 11 NFL FANtasy points (3 times more than what he’s been getting this years) so keep him in your line ups. A lot of nay-sayers were complaining that he got his money so he let up. The truth is he is playing under a different system with new coaches so for some that takes time to grasp. Give him a break. He will do you good the rest of the way. We also didn’t see the injuries we have been seeing in the first 8 weeks so Week 10 ought to be very interesting.

Now that there are 9 games under the belt, with 7 left we’ll be seeing a lot of teams start to jockey for the play off spots. We should really start to see some awesome games and individual performances. Reseach YOUR players stats and especially who they are playing against. (Opponenets Ranking). Although my heart wanted to play Steve Johnson (WR Buffalo) I knew he would be draped by Revis from the Jets. So instead I went with Victor Cruz (yes from the enemy Jets) and it turned into the right decision as Johnson got 7 pts vs Cruz’ 10. Three points isn’t much, but in a tight FANtasy game it’s EVERYTHING.

Just remeber, the more you SOW (from here on) the more wins you’ll get and hopefully we will see you in the playoffs.

I’ll be giving you an update on my 5 teams tomorrow after tonights MNF game. However I can happily report that my 0-8 team from ESPN is now 1-8. Yippeee!!!!

Don’t forget to click on our valued advertisers (in the box on the top right in blue). There is a ton of FANtasy Football info here and again, the MORE YOU SOW, THE MORE YOU REAP.

Good luck to you all. And enjoy your FANtasy Football team.

MIKE ON MONDAY

Lets say that you are one of those football fans that is not on a FANtasy Football team. Could that be possible? Is it the end of the world as we know it? Do you know ANYBODY that is not on a FANtasy team? Of course we do. Every week in my mail box there are at least 5-10 e mails asking how and where they could join a team. Even though the NFL has played nearly 50% of it’s regular season games, there is still a lot of football left.

One of the uncertainties of starting a team in September (the regular start to the season) is injuries. A lot FANtasy players will spend the summer scouring the magazines and watching the TV shows on FANtasy Football trying to get an edge on who is who for the upcoming season. Then they will spend hours RANKING the players that they would like to get on their team. Whether it’s a LIVE DRAFT or your team is picked by the computer there is a certain amount of research you’ll need to do to build a winning team. (More on the 2 types of drafts later). Back to the injuries. This past September, Houston Running Back Arian Foster was the undisputed #1 RB on 95% of all FANtasy leagues. Little did anyone who drafted him ( I didn’t) know he would miss 3 of the first four games with a Hamstring injury. Those things take time to heal as he has yet to consistently hit the numbers he put up last year. There are other top point getting players that are out for the season, Kenny Britt (WR Tenn.), and Jamaal Charles (RB KC) are just two quick ones that come to mind as I had them both on two of my five teams. Then there are others in the second tier of players like Tim Hightower (RB Wash) that was a starter in 70% of all leagues also out for the year. The list goes on and on. The FANtasy Football world is full of injured players. Any real NFL team has all kinds of players pretty beat up by now.

By starting a FANtasy league or joining an existing one now without the injured players is a major plus for you. YOU KNOW WHAT YOU ARE GETTING. At this time I’d like to take you back to Volume 2, “STARTING A FANTASY FOOTBALL TEAM.” Here is a detailed report on what to do, where to do it and when to get it going.

http://bestfantasyfootballblog.com/starting-a-fantasy-football-team/

I hope that was helpful. One of our readers Jim, wrote in asking for some of the ideas I use when Drafting players. Here is what we had to say:

October 23, 2011 at 2:53 pm

Well Mike can you give me your thoughts on drafting players , what position and players would be your pick and why pick a QB or wr over a rb and so on? Would things change if you had the # 1 pick or the # 6 pick?

All great questions Jim, as these are the majority of the types of questions we get. For someone just starting to play FANtasy Football there a 2 types of drafting systems:
1. The computer does it for you. You a given the chance to RANK players and then on a prearrainged draft date you will be assigned on the avereage 15 NFL players
(9 Starters and 6 Bench). The League Manager (the person that starts the league) will put in the numbers as to how many players will be on the roster, how many QBs can be used, set up the scroring system (how many points per TD, FG etc). Or they can just use the STANDARD SYSTEM of what the League uses. This is good for those that just want some players and want to get READY TO RUMBLE.” The computer will assign you the BEST AVAILABLE PLAYER to an “opening” you have on your roster. Also MOST of these “CUSTOM LEAGUES” start the draft with picking Running Backs in the 1st round. This will be important later.
2. Drafting Your Own Team. This is as close as you will get to an actual real time draft as you will ever see. You will still have to RANK your players and positions. The computer will assign a draft order and you will have about a minute to make your selection. I try to make decisions just like a real NFL team. Because most Team Owners like to pick RBs first I like to build my team around a QB. Even if I’m last in the draft order I will have a chance to get the top 1 or 2 QBs in the league. As a matter of fact the last 2 teams I joined (the 2 Flea Flicker Leagues) I was able to draft Aaron Rodgers in the 1st round. If all the pros are saying the NFL is now a PASSING league, it makes sense to me to be to have as great a QB a possible. The next position I go for is RB and I will select the HIGHEST RANKING RB available. Some people will draft 2-3 RBs in a row. Unless my 3rd RB is the BEST player available, my 3rd pick will be the BEST WR available. Now here is where I suprise some people. Most Defenses aren’t picked untill the 7th, 8th or 9th rounds. With the same philosophy I use for picking a QB, I like to get a Defense(which is usally the Highest Ranking Def.) in the 4th round. I then fill out the rest of my roster with picking THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE for the position I have an opening for.
I gave some thought on your asking if I pick differently if I had the #1 or #6 pick. I think I would probably pick the same way. The reason is that most Team Owners are going to stock their 1st and 2nd pick with an RB. I still want that high powered QB. Why? More than likely he will get you 30-40 points or more week in and week out. A bad week for Rodgers, Tom Brady or Drew Brees is getting ONLY 20 points. RBs average less FANtasy points per game (15-25) and stand a better chance of an injury where they miss 4-6 games per year. Keep in mind, I’m not saying always, just usually.

For those of you following my 5 FANtasy Football teams, I went 3-2 in week 7. Over-all I’m at 16-12. Here are the links:

On

http://fantasy.nfl.com/league/349053/team/1    6-1

On

http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=359076    4-3

On

http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/league?leagueId=47203&teamId=497789    4-1

On

http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=206092     0-7 (Ouch) This is my so called experimental team and the experiment has gone terribly wrong.

On

http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/team?leagueId=116416&teamId=838261     2-0

For those of you with teams, have fun in week 8. For those of you starting a new team, have fun in week 1.  As you can see I have 5 teams in three different leagues (not to mention the 40-50 leagues & sites I follow for research for these reports. I do want to give a special shout out to a league I just joined and have 2 teams that are 6-1 over-all. Go to www.fleaflicker.com They recently helped me with an issue that they addressed immediatley. I’m all for helping each other out, so if your going to start another team or if this is your first one, make sure you go here. www.fleaflicker.com

Also check out my day time job web site: www.witenterprises.biz

MIKE ON MONDAY

Hi Jim, that’s a great comment you submitted. The reason is that sometimes when we set up leagues mistakes happen. In researching your league and your team, it seems the League Manager BLEW IT!  I think he or she pushed one too many keys. Most leagues have formats that average 9 players per team. But, and this is not your fault, your league has 16 players per team. In a 12 team league that doesn’t leave enough room for quality Free Agents (FA). In digging deeper into your transactions, however, it seems you have done a great job in dealing (ADD/DROP) with the players the FA list provided you. So Jim, keep up the good job, as it looks like you will make it to the playoffs.

                              GAME DAY, NOT ONLY SHOWTIME, IT’S FUNTIME

Having said that, it leads me to this weeks subject matter NEVER GIVE UP and HAVE SOME FUN. Each year we see that when teams get to week 7 and they have a losing record it becomes very easy for them to quit playing. One of the many reasons I love FANtasy Football is the fact that I can actually pretend to be a REAL Owner/General Manager/Coach and or player on a REAL NFL team. Remember that just 7 short weeks ago we all were very excited about the possibility of not only making it to the playoffs but actually winning the whole taco, the LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP.  Sometimes there is the potetial to get off to a poor start, so it becomes very easy to quit. We all have heard the saying “Winners Never Quit and Quitters Never Win.” And, because quitting is one little old click on the keyboard it becomes apparent that losing is also a state of mind. What else do we quit in life?

This is the time of the season to really have some FUN with your team. I like to tell the story of how, just a couple of years ago, one of the teams in a league I was in, started off with a 0-5 record. Perfect reason for this team owner to chuck in the season. Instead he tweaked his team and dropped a couple of players, players that weren’t living up to their contract (see how easy it is to pretend we actually own an NFL team)? Over the last 9 games he went 8-1 and not only made the playoffs but won his League Championship. Now that’s a WINNER!

Another thing to consider is that it’s not fair to the other team owners. Lets say you have someone like Drew Brees on your team. If you quit and never put Brees back into the player pool, the FA list, none of the other teams can use a very high scoring player. Not fair. Plus, this is the time of the season where we get bombarded with BYE week players. My wife had six players out this week. But because she stockpiled players for the BYE weeks she breezed through the replacement players. I had more than just a few questions this season by Team Owners asking about Carlson Palmer. This is where going with your GUT FEELING kicks in. I advised that if your roster could afford it,  keep him on your team. We knew it was just a matter of time he would come back. Why? Because he had a clause in his contract that he would earn 11 million dollars this year. Not too many people on this planet are walking away from a deal like that. So, when Jason Cambell went down and the possibility of losing his services for as many as seven weeks, it created the perfect timing for Palmer to pick up that $11 mil.

Currently I have 5 teams with an over all record of  12-9.  One of my ESPN teams is 0-6. I call it my experimental team with the experiment going terribly wrong. Real easy to click that quit key, or worse, do nothing at all leaving the rest of the league wondering where I and the players on my team went. Conversely, it creates the perfect chance to play around and take a chance on a player that I may or may not add to my roster. This is what makes the game fun.

So my friends, have fun. This is why you started a team seven weeks ago. We call it FANtasy Football. So go ahead and FANtasize that you too could go on a seven game game winning streak, finish 8-6, make the playoffs and win YOUR League Championship game. It’s been done before.

For those of you that are following my teams, here’s a quick look going into week 7:

On http://fantasy.nfl.com/league/349053/team/1       4-1

On http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=359076    4-1

On http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/league?leagueId=47203&teamId=497789       3-1

On http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=206092 0-6 (Ouch) This is my so called experimental team and the experiment has gone terribly wrong.

That’s 12-9  for a .571 Winning Percentage. Only 3 games over .500. Got to get to 4-1 this week.

I just added a 5th team on Flea Flicker     1-0

http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/team?leagueId=116416&teamId=838261

Have a FANtastic week 7,

MIKE ON MONDAY

A very good technique to use is to play with your head not your heart. Too many times when someone justs starts a FANtasy football team they go after players from their hometown team. When I first started a playing FANtasy football 8 years ago, my beloved Buffalo Bills were doing, how should I say, not too good. But not knowing any better I had 8 of 11 roster spots filled with Buffalo players. Fast forward to game 6 and a won loss record of 0-5.  I decided Trent Edwards and his crew weren’t taking me to any FANtasy playoff games. Now keep in mind I’m as die-hard a Bills fan as there is anywhere for any team in the nation. I’ve been following them since the 60s. I have seen the good (4 Super Bowl appearences in a row) to 2-14 seasons. But the group of Bills I had on my FANtasy team just weren’t getting it done. No wonder they were all over all of the Free Agent list. I was born at night but not last night so after those first 5 games out went the Bills and in came The Eagles, Steelers, Patriots and any other winning team I could find. Guess what? That first year of playing FANtasy football I went 8-1 over the last 9 games finishing 8-6, made the first round of the playoffs, which I lost, but I was hooked and off to the races.

This is probably some of the best advice I can give. Play with your head, not your heart. This is a numbers only game there is no emotions being used. The computer follows a players stats and let you know what their avereages will be. So, TRUST THE NUMBERS. They don’t lie and they don’t use emotion when making recommendations.

The TV expersts’ guess is just as good as yours. Always trust your gut feelings. So, unless you are from New England, San Diego, Green Bay or New Orleans, and now finally the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Buffalo Bills,  try not to play your home town team players. They will give you something, something called heartache. The five teams mentioned have high scoring attacks. If you have WRs, RBs or TEs from those teams play them each week. They will get you points.

Keep in mind that PASSING is way up this year. Last year there were 5 QBs that passed for more than 4000 yards. This year 12 of 32 QBs are projected to hit that milestone. Find players from those teams and play them each week. And don’t be afraid to trade. Too many times we fall in love with players that don’t help us. Look at other teams in your league and see where they might be weak. It’s OK to put in a trade to them. It’s week 6, you should know by now who is contributing and who is not. If you have a bench player that your not keeping for an upcoming BYE week replacement, put the word out that he is tradeable. Either put in a trade, put the player on THE TRADING BLOCK or e mail a team to see if they are interested. There is still pleny of time to salvage a good season by making a move or two. Your job is to strengthen your team. Player by player, position by position, look for ways to IMPROVE YOUR TEAM.

On   http://fantasy.nfl.com/league/349053/team/1    4-1

On   http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=359076    4-1

On   http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/league?leagueId=47203&teamId=497789   

 3-0

On   http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=206092    0-5 (Ouch)This is my so called experimental team and the experiment has gone terribly wrong.   :)

That’s 11-7  for a  .611 Winning Percentage (I need to crank it up in week 6).

I just added a 5th team on Flea Flicker:

 http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/team?leagueId=116416&teamId=838261

Wish me luck as I wish you luck as well.

Good luck in week 6 and most of all have fun.

MIKE ON MONDAY

Oh my gosh, it’s that time of the year already?  It’s the 1st dreaded BYE week. This is any FANtasy players’ worst part of the game. It’s when you have to take someone from your Bench that could be projected to get 3 points and replace him for one of your studs that’s been averaging 25 pts. Sometimes you have to go to the Waiver Wire (WW) or Free Agency (FA) to find a player that through the first four games is averaging more than that Bench player with the 3 pts. You might DROP your worst player and ADD the one from the WW or FA lists. One of the reasons we suggest you start working on your team early in the week is that come BYE weeks other FANtasy players attack the WW or FA lists early in the week. If you wait until Friday or Saturday the pickings could be slim. It’s another reason I suggest loading your team with RBs and WRs. Some formats allow you to use 3 QBs, so use that option wisely. Try not to put a RB, WR or TE in that 2nd or 3rd QB slot as QBs will almost ALWAYS score more FF points than the other 3 positions. Whichever avenue you use, still give the replacement players all of the other considerations we have been discussing these last 5 weeks. (refer to ALL of the posts). To find out which players aren’t playing look at your teams BYE week column. You should aready know by now. But in case your just finding out, there are still good players on your Bench and on the WW and FA lists.

Be careful that if you DROP a player to get a FA there is no guarantee you’ll get him back. If he’s half way decent another team will snatch him up quicker than a mosquito could bite a donkeys’ butt. If you are using a Bench replacement make sure to flip them back for week 6. If you are not sure who to use, send in your question and we’ll give you our suggestions in plenty of time to set your roster. This week we had plenty of our followers ask about replacement players. I thought I would add one to this report to show how and why we decide on picking between two or more players. Here it is:

Jim wrote us asking who he should play, Phil Rivers (QB SD) or Matthew Stafford (QB Det). Our response:

This is a very big game for Detroit. They will have a national audience on Monday Night Football and a chance to go 5-0. Plus they are playing a divisional rival and that always jacks the players up. Although I like Rivers (I drafted him on one of my teams) all of the statistics indicate that for week 5 GO WITH STAFFORD. The only category that would lean towards Rivers is Opponents Ranking.
Stafford, who will have the extra juice and motivation players get when they’re on MNF, is playing Chicago at home. The Bears are ranked 9th on Defense. Rivers is playing Denver, ranked 25th on Defense. Through 4 weeks Stafford is averaging 31 FANtasy points vs. Rivers 22. In week 5 Stafford will pass for over 300 yds with 3 TDs and give you at least 30 -35 FANtasy points. I also see a high scoring game (38-31 Detroit over Chicago) so 40 FANtasy points is not out of the question. Good luck.

As you can see there is a lot to think about when deciding who to play. Here is another consideration: If you happen to have a WR (usually a #1 WR on his NFL teams’ depth chart) and they are playing the New York Jets you may not want to play a WR that will be facing the Jets. New York will usually have Darrelle Revis cover the opposing teams’ #1 reciever. In this weeks matchup the Jets will probably have Revis cover New Englands’ Wes Welker. Here is where it gets tricky. Revis has been very succesful in all but shutting down the other teams’ #1 WR. Yet some people (myself included) advise to play your studs (a top 10 ranked player) NO MATTER WHAT! Sounds like we’re talking out of both sides of our mouths? Well, you’re right we are. Thats’ why we say GO WITH YOUR GUT FEELING. When all the stats are researched, trust your instincts. And when Revis shuts down Welker, just chalk it up to a bad week for Welker. You still have to play him. If Revis shuts down WRs 99% of the time, maybe Welker will be that 1% that has his normal BIG game. Keep in mind, we’re not solving our nations unemployment rate, it’s just a game.

Speaking of statistics, don’t pay them any attention

. Just kidding, don’t freak out, nothing being smoked here. What I meant is that sometimes we can’t rely soley on them. Case in point. All of the preseason projections from all of the services had the Pittsburg Steelers ranked #1 on Defense. As you can see, after 4 weeks that projection did not hold up. And now that James Harrison (OLB) is out (he’s the one that tries to take QBs heads off), the climb back to #1 just got that much harder. Most FANtasy team owners are panicking and dropping the Steelers. I’m not. It’s only been 4 games. I’ll give them another game or two, maybe three or four. Why? The next 2 games (Tenn. #7, Baltimore #1) might be tough, but then again maybe not. The Steelers are a proud franchise that may want to prove they still have more gas left in the tank. It’s possible that they could hold the Titans and Ravens to 10 points or less. Anything is possible. I could see them letting Ray Rice (RB Balt) run up and down the field but, if they keep him out of the end zone10 or fewer points is a REAL possibility. The following 2 games are against Seattle, #28 and Indy, #22. I like those matchups. Enough to make me want to keep them on my roster for another week or two or maybe three or four.

Lots of stuff to consider isn’t it? That’s what makes it fun. Just make sure you take care of your players on BYE and now that there will be BYES each week get into the habit of planning ahead. Do that and you’ll stay ahead of the rest of the pack.

Update on my teams:

On   http://fantasy.nfl.com/league/349053/team/1      4-0

On   http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=359076       3-1

On   http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/league?leagueId=47203&teamId=497789      2-0

On    http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=206092     0-4 (Ouch)

After 4 weeks I’m a combined 9-5 or .643 winning %.

Have a FANTASTIC week 5,

MIKE ON MONDAY

OK, 25% of the season has gone by so far. How’s your FANtasy team doing? If it’s been anything like the real NFL it’s been crazy. We still have the MNF game tonight so we’ll be giving you some final stas on Tuesday. However, I was so excited about sharing some thoughts on week 4 that I want to put this out now. Plus, it is MIKE ON MONDAY isn’t it? So, here we go.

This past Saturday I started to write a report on WHEN DO WE GET RID OF OUR STUDS? I was thinking about how little Arian Foster (RB Houston) has done going into week 4. Even though he was out 2 of the 3 games, he had 4 overall points (all 4 in one game and that’s not good) or an average of 1.33 Pts Per Game (ppg) for the three games. In most leagues he was the #1 overall draft pick. He should’ve been knocking out at least 20-30 ppg. Thats what #1 picks do. They carry your team. You build a team around them. You play them every week. They are your ‘studs.’ Last week I had no fewer than 10 e mails asking if they should drop Foster. If they took my advice they held on to him for one more week. The way I look at it, it was his first game back from a groin injury (he played a little in week 2). This would be a good test to see if he was a one year wonder or the real deal. Keeping him for one more week would not make or break a season. So, what does he do yesterday? How about 155 yds rushing, 11 recieving yards and a TD. Translation: 28 FANtasy pts. Note: although I follow several leagues, you can assume that when I mention how many points a player gets I am using the stats from www.nfl.com/fantasy. Back to Foster, aren’t you glad you kept him? 28 points is nothing to sluff off. Those are the numbers he should be getting each week. FANtasy football is a week by week type game. With an obvious core of 5-8 players (depending on which site or format you use) the rest of your team could be flipped, from starters to bench and back week by week, depending on who they are playing, Opponents Rankings, etc. If you only get one idea from these posts it should be that there are a lot of things to consider when putting together your starting line up for that particular week. Which leads me to my next random thought.

The ONLY expert you should trust is YOU!

 Before the games started yesterday I was watching a FANtasy football show on TV. The ‘experts’ were discussing how many points certain players were “going to get.” My better half turns to me and asks “how do they know that?” The easy answer would have been that they have tons of statistics to pour over and if thats their full time job they can cover a lot of relevant material all week long. Instead I simply said “Your guess is a good as mine.” To me, that is the right answer. Just when you think you’ve got it all figured out, all hell breaks out. Either your top gun gets hurt during practice week (which is why you should check your team each day) or he has an ‘off’ week, or one or two of your bench players, which you tossed and turned on whether to start or not has a 30 point game. Or, as it happened to me yesterday, your superstars get injured early in the game. I had both Vincent Jackson (WR San Diego) and Andre Johnson (WR Houston) knocked out before the first half was over).While I’m thinking about it, a good show to watch for input only is FANtasy Football on ESPN2 on Sunday at 11:30 AM. Use their info and stats, take some of their advise, but as I’ve said before TRUST YOUR GUT. Make your own decision. If you use as many sources as possible you should be right most of the time. FANtasy football is a game of statistics. The Universal Law of Averages means that if you go with the majority of numbers you’ll be right most of the time.

Another valuable tip: don’t wait until an hour before the game to start making changes. On the 2 big ones, www.nfl.com/fantasy and www.espn.com/fantasy there are thousands of FANtasy players going on those sites looking for last minute info. For two weeks in a row, both sites went down temporarily because of all the traffic. Try to do as much as possible on your team during the week, so when it comes to game time your all set. Not to say there will be some last minute changes occasionally. But you should only be looking at a player or two that might be, what is called the ‘kiss of death,’ a game time decision.  

Nowadays you’ll hear a lot that the NFL is a passing game. Teams still have to run the ball, but each week we’re seeing QBs throw 300 and 400 yards per game. Yesterday Aaron Rodgers (GB) threw 408 yds and had 4TDs for 66points. Tom Brady had an ‘average’ game of 226 yds and 2 TDs for 26 pts. I mention Brady because that might be one of his lowest point totals on the year. These high scoring QBs like Rodgers, Brady, Drew Brees, and Phil Rivers are starting to spoil us. Even Cam Newton (Carolina) has two 400 yard games and a 387 yard game and he’s a rookie. And that’s 3 out of 4 games. I mention this because if you have WRs and RBs on these teams play them every week. Even if they are 2nd, 3rd or 4th on their depth charts. RBs on those teams might also have Pass Recieving points, so play them as well. Will this get you more points every week? Can’t guarantee that. But I can guaantee that over the course of the year those players will have more points than WRs and RBs from QBs on the other end of the spectrum. Some examples from week 4: Randall Cobb (WR GB) 14 pts., Green-Ellis (RB NE) 14 pts.(these are not household names), Steve Smith (WR Carolina) 23 pts. Darren Sproles (RB NO) 5.6 rec yds(5.6 pts), Mike Tolbert (RB SD) 5.1 rec yds (5.1 pts),the last two are RBs so when you add those points to their Rushing yds it makes for a good game. How about James Jones, a 3rd stringer (WR GB) with 48 Rec yds and a TD for 10 points? Not bad for a 3rd reciever. I’d take those points every week, especially when he was projected to only get one point. The point of all of this is we don’t get the BIG points from just our studs. Take a real good, long, hard look at WRs,RBs and Tight Ends as well from your stronger QBs. If they throw for 300-400 yards, someone has to catch those passes.

One last thought, there are more than just 4 good QBs in the NFL. The above mentioned are what we call the Top Tier. There is a ton of talent right below them such as Eli Manning, Matt Schaub, Mike Vick, Tony Romo and more. Even the Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton had 22 FANtasy points yesterday (Booo, he had them at the expense of my beloved BILLS).

You’ll notice that I haven’t done PLAYER RANKINGS yet. We’ll start them next week after we have 25% of the season in the bag and a pretty good handle of who’s on first (I know, wrong sport) by then. The underlying thread to all of this is YOU MUST DO YOUR HOMEWORK. The more you put in, the better the results. I hope some of this helps. There will be more tomorrow, so stay tuned, try some of these techniques and I guarantee you a better game in week 5.

Have a FANTASTIC week

MIKE ON MONDAY

I HOPE THE SITE IS HELPING YOU, AND IF YOU HAVE SPECIFIC QUESTIONS ON WHO TO START OR BENCH, PLEASE FEEL FREE TO SEND THEM IN.

I HOPE YOUR FF TEAM WINS BIG TODAY, ENJOY &  GO BILLS.

MIKE ON MONDAY.

A couple of weeks ago I recieved an email asking why there weren’t any quality Free Agents (translation BIG NAME) players on the FA list or the Waiver wire.  We advised that you have to look at the big picture when ADDING or DROPPING someone from your team.  Think about it, on any given weekend, QBs like Phil Rivers, Drew Brees or Tom Brady are capable for throwing over 400 yards.  The #1 reciever on those teams probably will not catch all 400 of those yards.  Which means someone is getting the rest of those passes.  The 2nd, 3rd or even the 4th reciever on the depth charts will get those calls.  Maybe the RB or TE will have a big game in Pass Receptions (which is anything more than either the Projected points or 15 points) because the #1 guy might be double teamed.  You have to look at the other wide outs on FA, AND the Defensive Rankings of the teams that the other recievers are playing against.  You have to look at the BIG picture. We have to eat the WHOLE enchilada, not just take one bite and hope it fills us up.

Here is what you need to do EACH  Tuesday.  If you have a player on IR (Injured Reserve) DROP him. Right now. ADD a player, preferably in that same position (unless you have an obvious weakness in another position,or you can use a player in multiple positions like R/W/T/Q) that:
a. Is in the top 5 on stats for the year so far.
b. Is in the top 5 for projected points for the upcoming game.
c. Is in the top 5 Projected Rankings for the year.
You also should check on the Strength of Schedule, meaning how tough are the opponents in the NFL.  Look at Opponents Ranking.  If you see that a particular player is constantly playing against teams in the top 5 in their category TAKE A CLOSER LOOK before you ADD him to your roster.

  
Never carry more than one Kicker or Def/STm (Unless they are on a BYE week). You can only play one at a time and the extra K or D/STm is taking a valuable roster spot that you could use with an extra RB, WR, or TE.
Sometimes you have to ADD a player just for that week only.  If you have someone on a BYE week, you might consider keeping the player on BYE and DROP your weakest player. You may or may not keep the new player depending on what they did that week, consider all of the above AND  TRUST your gut feeling.

Speaking of Gut Feelings, make sure you tune into our next report.  It will be on the importance of going with your gut and how you can translate that feeling into Ws.

You can also follow my FANtasy teams by clicking on the post: ITS SHOWTIME FOR THE NSFFL.

 My team from www.nfl.com  is the FLORIDA BILLS. I’m 3-0 in this league.  Click on: http://fantasy.nfl.com/league/349053

My 2nd team (all my teams are the FLORIDA BILLS Iis on: http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/standings?leagueId=359076   I’m 2-1 here.

A combined record of 5-1 is OK for now, but there is a lot of FANtasy football season left. I better make sure I practice what I preach.

Have a FANtastic FANtasy week, and check out some of our advertisers. There are some great stats that will also help you to have a #1 team in YOUR league. If you have any questions on what to purchase or not, or just want some free info from us contact Mike  at www.bestfantasyfootballblog.com
Mike on Monday. www.witenterprises.biz (My day time job that I also love).